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Draft prep

Draft Strategy

Describe your league and see how each strategy plays out from your seat: who is likely there at your picks, what roster you end up with, and where that roster wins. Built on 2026-27 projections, with injuries priced in.

Your draft slot (pick more than one if you run more than one team)
Injury risk
Missed games cost you what they actually cost: replacement-level production in that roster spot.

Your picks

#3 R1#18 R2#23 R3#38 R4#43 R5#58 R6#63 R7#78 R8#83 R9#98 R10#103 R11#118 R12#123 R13
A middle slot at 3 overall. You see the board settle before every pick and can react to what the room is doing.
Your first three rounds land at picks 3, 18, 23.
Trae Young is listed day to day and is still on the board around pick 23 (round 3). He is projected for 71 games. That discount is the reason he is there; the rosters below price it in rather than ignore it.

Strategies from this seat

Ordered by how many of the nine categories each roster projects to take against an average team in your league, after expected missed games are taken off.

Balanced BEST FIT7.2 / 9 cats

Take the best player available and stay competitive in all nine categories.

BLKFT%TO ASTREB

Works when: You pick near the turn and want flexibility, or it is your first season in the league.
Risk: Winning a category by a lot is wasted value. Balanced teams often finish second in many categories instead of first in a few.

Roster plays 78% of the season against 85% for an average drafted player · 236 games missed · 8 projected well under a full season

Carrying a flag today: Anthony Davis (day to day), Kyrie Irving (day to day), Kristaps Porzingis (day to day).

Target roster and category profile
RdPick PlayerPosTeam ADPOn boardWhy nowIf gone GamesStatusInjury cut
1#3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander PGOKC 3 61% likely gone by your next pick (0% he lasts) Victor Wembanyama, Luka Doncic 76-7%
2#18 Kawhi Leonard ⚠ SFTOR 28 97% rated well above his ADP Anthony Davis, Tyrese Haliburton 63-23%
3#23 Anthony Davis ⚠⚠ PFWSH 34 96% likely gone by your next pick (30% he lasts) Stephen Curry, Jamal Murray 61day to day-29%
4#38 Lauri Markkanen SFUTAH 56 96% rated well above his ADP Kyrie Irving, Trey Murphy III 69-16%
5#43 Kyrie Irving ⚠⚠ PGDAL 60 94% rated well above his ADP Trey Murphy III, Desmond Bane 59day to day-31%
6#58 Trey Murphy III SGNO 75 90% rated well above his ADP Chet Holmgren, Ty Jerome 68-17%
7#63 Chet Holmgren ⚠ PFOKC 64 56% likely gone by your next pick (14% he lasts) Joel Embiid, Damian Lillard 65-21%
8#78 Ty Jerome ⚠ PGMEM 93 82% rated well above his ADP Paul George, Walker Kessler 64-22%
9#83 OG Anunoby SFNY 85 57% likely gone by your next pick (22% he lasts) Paul George, Kristaps Porzingis 68-17%
10#98 Paul George ⚠⚠ SFBOS 105 65% rated well above his ADP Kristaps Porzingis, Kel'el Ware 55-33%
11#103 Kristaps Porzingis ⚠⚠ PFGS 109 62% likely gone by your next pick (33% he lasts) Kel'el Ware, Reed Sheppard 59day to day-31%
12#118 Zach Edey ⚠ CMEM 124 61% rated well above his ADP Tobias Harris, Keegan Murray 62day to day-27%
13#123 Keegan Murray SFSAC 124 54% last pick Cason Wallace, Mitchell Robinson 71-13%

⚠ projected to miss a chunk of the season, ⚠⚠ more than a quarter. Games is the projected number played out of 82. Injury cut is how much of the player's edge was handed to a replacement for the games he is not expected to play. On board is the chance he is still there at that pick; If gone lists who the plan falls back to.

FG%FG%: +0.26 vs average team+0.26FT%FT%: +0.53 vs average team+0.533PM3PM: +0.24 vs average team+0.24PTSPTS: +0.23 vs average team+0.23REBREB: +0.07 vs average team+0.07ASTAST: -0.43 vs average team-0.43STLSTL: +0.23 vs average team+0.23BLKBLK: +0.41 vs average team+0.41TOTO: +0.43 vs average team+0.43

Each bar is this roster against an average team in your league. Right of the line is ahead.

Punt FG%6.0 / 9 cats

Give up field-goal percentage and chase guards: threes, assists, steals and free throws.

3PMFT%STL REBAST FG% punted

Works when: You pick late in round one and the elite bigs are gone.
Risk: Volume scorers on bad efficiency still hurt you elsewhere if they turn the ball over.

Roster plays 80% of the season against 85% for an average drafted player · 212 games missed · 6 projected well under a full season

Carrying a flag today: Kyrie Irving (day to day), Kristaps Porzingis (day to day), Fred VanVleet (day to day).

Target roster and category profile
RdPick PlayerPosTeam ADPOn boardWhy nowIf gone GamesStatusInjury cut
1#3 Victor Wembanyama CSA 3 65% likely gone by your next pick (0% he lasts) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic 67-18%
2#18 LaMelo Ball PGMIN 26 93% rated well above his ADP Kawhi Leonard, Tyrese Haliburton 68-17%
3#23 Kawhi Leonard ⚠ SFTOR 28 84% likely gone by your next pick (6% he lasts) Stephen Curry, James Harden 63-23%
4#38 Derrick White PGBOS 41 65% likely gone by your next pick (40% he lasts) Lauri Markkanen, Kyrie Irving 77-6%
5#43 Lauri Markkanen SFUTAH 56 90% likely gone by your next pick (44% he lasts) Kyrie Irving, Trey Murphy III 69-16%
6#58 Kyrie Irving ⚠⚠ PGDAL 60 58% likely gone by your next pick (40% he lasts) Trey Murphy III, Damian Lillard 59day to day-31%
7#63 Trey Murphy III SGNO 75 82% likely gone by your next pick (43% he lasts) Damian Lillard, Brandon Miller 68-17%
8#78 Paul George ⚠⚠ SFBOS 105 93% rated well above his ADP OG Anunoby, Ty Jerome 55-33%
9#83 Ty Jerome ⚠ PGMEM 93 74% likely gone by your next pick (40% he lasts) Jaren Jackson Jr., Fred VanVleet 64-22%
10#98 Kristaps Porzingis ⚠⚠ PFGS 109 72% rated well above his ADP Fred VanVleet, Reed Sheppard 59day to day-31%
11#103 Fred VanVleet ⚠ PGHOU 107 60% likely gone by your next pick (30% he lasts) Reed Sheppard, Immanuel Quickley 68day to day-20%
12#118 Keegan Murray SFSAC 124 62% rated well above his ADP Collin Gillespie, Cason Wallace 71-13%
13#123 Collin Gillespie PGPHX 126 57% last pick Cason Wallace, Myles Turner 73-11%

⚠ projected to miss a chunk of the season, ⚠⚠ more than a quarter. Games is the projected number played out of 82. Injury cut is how much of the player's edge was handed to a replacement for the games he is not expected to play. On board is the chance he is still there at that pick; If gone lists who the plan falls back to.

FG%FG%: -0.49 vs average teampuntedFT%FT%: +0.56 vs average team+0.563PM3PM: +0.77 vs average team+0.77PTSPTS: +0.13 vs average team+0.13REBREB: -0.18 vs average team-0.18ASTAST: -0.06 vs average team-0.06STLSTL: +0.30 vs average team+0.30BLKBLK: +0.22 vs average team+0.22TOTO: +0.35 vs average team+0.35

Each bar is this roster against an average team in your league. Right of the line is ahead.

Punt assists5.8 / 9 cats

Skip playmaking and build around bigs and wings with defensive stats.

BLKTOREB PTS3PM AST punted

Works when: You have an early pick and want the best bigs without paying for guard production.
Risk: Assists correlate with usage; you may also give up points.

Roster plays 79% of the season against 85% for an average drafted player · 223 games missed · 7 projected well under a full season

Carrying a flag today: Anthony Davis (day to day), Kyrie Irving (day to day), Kristaps Porzingis (day to day).

Target roster and category profile
RdPick PlayerPosTeam ADPOn boardWhy nowIf gone GamesStatusInjury cut
1#3 Victor Wembanyama CSA 3 65% likely gone by your next pick (0% he lasts) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kawhi Leonard 67-18%
2#18 Kawhi Leonard ⚠ SFTOR 28 97% rated well above his ADP Anthony Davis, Lauri Markkanen 63-23%
3#23 Anthony Davis ⚠⚠ PFWSH 34 96% likely gone by your next pick (30% he lasts) Jalen Duren, Lauri Markkanen 61day to day-29%
4#38 Lauri Markkanen SFUTAH 56 96% rated well above his ADP Chet Holmgren, Kyrie Irving 69-16%
5#43 Chet Holmgren ⚠ PFOKC 64 97% rated well above his ADP Kyrie Irving, Trey Murphy III 65-21%
6#58 Kyrie Irving ⚠⚠ PGDAL 60 58% likely gone by your next pick (40% he lasts) Trey Murphy III, Walker Kessler 59day to day-31%
7#63 Trey Murphy III SGNO 75 82% likely gone by your next pick (43% he lasts) Walker Kessler, Jarrett Allen 68-17%
8#78 Walker Kessler ⚠ CLAL 79 54% likely gone by your next pick (40% he lasts) OG Anunoby, Kel'el Ware 64-22%
9#83 OG Anunoby SFNY 85 57% likely gone by your next pick (22% he lasts) Kel'el Ware, Norman Powell 68-17%
10#98 Kel'el Ware CMIL 108 70% rated well above his ADP Kristaps Porzingis, Paul George 72-12%
11#103 Kristaps Porzingis ⚠⚠ PFGS 109 62% likely gone by your next pick (33% he lasts) Paul George, Reed Sheppard 59day to day-31%
12#118 Zach Edey ⚠ CMEM 124 61% rated well above his ADP Cason Wallace, Keegan Murray 62day to day-27%
13#123 Cason Wallace PGOKC 154 88% last pick Keegan Murray, Mitchell Robinson 76-7%

⚠ projected to miss a chunk of the season, ⚠⚠ more than a quarter. Games is the projected number played out of 82. Injury cut is how much of the player's edge was handed to a replacement for the games he is not expected to play. On board is the chance he is still there at that pick; If gone lists who the plan falls back to.

FG%FG%: +0.40 vs average team+0.40FT%FT%: +0.16 vs average team+0.163PM3PM: -0.04 vs average team-0.04PTSPTS: -0.10 vs average team-0.10REBREB: +0.52 vs average team+0.52ASTAST: -0.72 vs average teampuntedSTLSTL: +0.05 vs average team+0.05BLKBLK: +1.00 vs average team+1.00TOTO: +0.52 vs average team+0.52

Each bar is this roster against an average team in your league. Right of the line is ahead.

Punt points5.4 / 9 cats

Give up raw scoring and collect specialists: steals, blocks, percentages and assists.

BLKSTLTO ASTFT% PTS punted

Works when: You pick in the middle and the top scorers are gone.
Risk: The hardest punt to run. Points are the easiest category to accumulate by accident, so your edge elsewhere must be large.

Roster plays 81% of the season against 85% for an average drafted player · 207 games missed · 7 projected well under a full season

Carrying a flag today: Tyrese Haliburton (day to day).

Target roster and category profile
RdPick PlayerPosTeam ADPOn boardWhy nowIf gone GamesStatusInjury cut
1#3 Victor Wembanyama CSA 3 65% likely gone by your next pick (0% he lasts) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton 67-18%
2#18 Tyrese Haliburton ⚠ PGIND 21 80% likely gone by your next pick (41% he lasts) Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis 64day to day-25%
3#23 Kawhi Leonard ⚠ SFTOR 28 84% likely gone by your next pick (6% he lasts) Anthony Davis, Dyson Daniels 63-23%
4#38 Dyson Daniels PGATL 60 98% rated well above his ADP Walker Kessler, Chet Holmgren 75-9%
5#43 Walker Kessler ⚠ CLAL 79 99% rated well above his ADP Chet Holmgren, Trey Murphy III 64-22%
6#58 Chet Holmgren ⚠ PFOKC 64 72% rated well above his ADP Kyrie Irving, Trey Murphy III 65-21%
7#63 Trey Murphy III SGNO 75 82% likely gone by your next pick (43% he lasts) OG Anunoby, Paul George 68-17%
8#78 OG Anunoby SFNY 85 69% rated well above his ADP Paul George, Ty Jerome 68-17%
9#83 Ty Jerome ⚠ PGMEM 93 74% likely gone by your next pick (40% he lasts) Kel'el Ware, Cason Wallace 64-22%
10#98 Kel'el Ware CMIL 108 70% rated well above his ADP Paul George, Cason Wallace 72-12%
11#103 Paul George ⚠⚠ SFBOS 105 54% likely gone by your next pick (25% he lasts) Cason Wallace, Mitchell Robinson 55-33%
12#118 Cason Wallace PGOKC 154 91% rated well above his ADP Mitchell Robinson, Zach Edey 76-7%
13#123 Mitchell Robinson ⚠ CBOS 150 85% last pick Zach Edey, Daniel Gafford 61-26%

⚠ projected to miss a chunk of the season, ⚠⚠ more than a quarter. Games is the projected number played out of 82. Injury cut is how much of the player's edge was handed to a replacement for the games he is not expected to play. On board is the chance he is still there at that pick; If gone lists who the plan falls back to.

FG%FG%: +0.34 vs average team+0.34FT%FT%: -0.12 vs average team-0.123PM3PM: -0.04 vs average team-0.04PTSPTS: -0.36 vs average teampuntedREBREB: +0.28 vs average team+0.28ASTAST: -0.33 vs average team-0.33STLSTL: +0.60 vs average team+0.60BLKBLK: +0.66 vs average team+0.66TOTO: +0.56 vs average team+0.56

Each bar is this roster against an average team in your league. Right of the line is ahead.

Punt FT%5.0 / 9 cats

Give up free-throw percentage and load up on bigs who score, rebound and block.

BLKFG%STL PTS3PM FT% punted

Works when: You can land one of the elite poor-shooting bigs early.
Risk: You are locked in by round three. Guards who shoot well become hard to use.

Roster plays 82% of the season against 85% for an average drafted player · 192 games missed · 6 projected well under a full season

Carrying a flag today: Anthony Davis (day to day).

Target roster and category profile
RdPick PlayerPosTeam ADPOn boardWhy nowIf gone GamesStatusInjury cut
1#3 Victor Wembanyama CSA 3 65% likely gone by your next pick (0% he lasts) Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic 67-18%
2#18 Kawhi Leonard ⚠ SFTOR 28 97% rated well above his ADP Anthony Davis, Jalen Duren 63-23%
3#23 Anthony Davis ⚠⚠ PFWSH 34 96% likely gone by your next pick (30% he lasts) Jalen Duren, Evan Mobley 61day to day-29%
4#38 Dyson Daniels PGATL 60 98% rated well above his ADP Walker Kessler, Jalen Williams 75-9%
5#43 Walker Kessler ⚠ CLAL 79 99% rated well above his ADP Jarrett Allen, Chet Holmgren 64-22%
6#58 Jarrett Allen CCLE 66 76% rated well above his ADP Chet Holmgren, Kyrie Irving 71-13%
7#63 Chet Holmgren ⚠ PFOKC 64 56% likely gone by your next pick (14% he lasts) Rudy Gobert, Trey Murphy III 65-21%
8#78 Rudy Gobert CMIN 81 60% likely gone by your next pick (46% he lasts) Ausar Thompson, Donovan Clingan 72-12%
9#83 Ausar Thompson SFDET 103 87% rated well above his ADP Paul George, Mitchell Robinson 70-15%
10#98 Reed Sheppard PGHOU 104 64% rated well above his ADP Mitchell Robinson, Josh Hart 76-7%
11#103 Paul George ⚠⚠ SFBOS 105 54% likely gone by your next pick (25% he lasts) Kel'el Ware, Mitchell Robinson 55-33%
12#118 Mitchell Robinson ⚠ CBOS 150 89% rated well above his ADP Cason Wallace, Jakob Poeltl 61-26%
13#123 Cason Wallace PGOKC 154 88% last pick Jakob Poeltl, Daniel Gafford 76-7%

⚠ projected to miss a chunk of the season, ⚠⚠ more than a quarter. Games is the projected number played out of 82. Injury cut is how much of the player's edge was handed to a replacement for the games he is not expected to play. On board is the chance he is still there at that pick; If gone lists who the plan falls back to.

FG%FG%: +0.67 vs average team+0.67FT%FT%: -0.61 vs average teampunted3PM3PM: -0.59 vs average team-0.59PTSPTS: -0.52 vs average team-0.52REBREB: +0.64 vs average team+0.64ASTAST: -0.57 vs average team-0.57STLSTL: +0.62 vs average team+0.62BLKBLK: +1.04 vs average team+1.04TOTO: +0.58 vs average team+0.58

Each bar is this roster against an average team in your league. Right of the line is ahead.

Punt threes5.0 / 9 cats

Ignore three-pointers and win the interior categories plus percentages.

BLKFG%REB PTSAST 3PM punted

Works when: Your league drafts shooters early and leaves bigs on the board.
Risk: Threes come attached to points; giving them up can cost two categories.

Roster plays 82% of the season against 85% for an average drafted player · 192 games missed · 6 projected well under a full season

Carrying a flag today: Anthony Davis (day to day), Kevin Porter Jr. (day to day), Zach Edey (day to day).

Target roster and category profile
RdPick PlayerPosTeam ADPOn boardWhy nowIf gone GamesStatusInjury cut
1#3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander PGOKC 3 61% likely gone by your next pick (0% he lasts) Victor Wembanyama, Kawhi Leonard 76-7%
2#18 Kawhi Leonard ⚠ SFTOR 28 97% rated well above his ADP Anthony Davis, Jalen Duren 63-23%
3#23 Anthony Davis ⚠⚠ PFWSH 34 96% likely gone by your next pick (30% he lasts) Jalen Duren, Jarrett Allen 61day to day-29%
4#38 Jarrett Allen CCLE 66 99% rated well above his ADP Walker Kessler, Dyson Daniels 71-13%
5#43 Dyson Daniels PGATL 60 94% rated well above his ADP Walker Kessler, Chet Holmgren 75-9%
6#58 Chet Holmgren ⚠ PFOKC 64 72% rated well above his ADP Kyrie Irving, Walker Kessler 65-21%
7#63 Walker Kessler ⚠ CLAL 79 87% rated well above his ADP Joel Embiid, Ausar Thompson 64-22%
8#78 Ausar Thompson SFDET 103 92% rated well above his ADP Ivica Zubac, Rudy Gobert 70-15%
9#83 Ivica Zubac CIND 95 76% likely gone by your next pick (44% he lasts) Ty Jerome, Kel'el Ware 69-16%
10#98 Kevin Porter Jr. ⚠ PGMIL 116 81% rated well above his ADP Zach Edey, Kel'el Ware 66day to day-23%
11#103 Kel'el Ware CMIL 108 60% likely gone by your next pick (30% he lasts) Zach Edey, Daniel Gafford 72-12%
12#118 Zach Edey ⚠ CMEM 124 61% rated well above his ADP Daniel Gafford, Cason Wallace 62day to day-27%
13#123 Daniel Gafford CDAL 150 85% last pick Cason Wallace, Mitchell Robinson 68-17%

⚠ projected to miss a chunk of the season, ⚠⚠ more than a quarter. Games is the projected number played out of 82. Injury cut is how much of the player's edge was handed to a replacement for the games he is not expected to play. On board is the chance he is still there at that pick; If gone lists who the plan falls back to.

FG%FG%: +1.05 vs average team+1.05FT%FT%: -0.32 vs average team-0.323PM3PM: -0.90 vs average teampuntedPTSPTS: -0.39 vs average team-0.39REBREB: +0.68 vs average team+0.68ASTAST: -0.51 vs average team-0.51STLSTL: +0.23 vs average team+0.23BLKBLK: +0.89 vs average team+0.89TOTO: +0.52 vs average team+0.52

Each bar is this roster against an average team in your league. Right of the line is ahead.

How this is worked out. Category strength comes from ESPN's 2026-27 per-game projections, turned into z-scores across the players your league actually drafts. Percentages are weighted by volume. Who is left at each pick comes from ESPN's live average draft position; a player's draft spot is treated as spread around his ADP, tight early and a round wide later. A player is only planned at a pick he is more likely than not to reach, and each pick weighs taking him now against what will still be there at your next one.

How injuries are priced. The projection carries an expected games total; a player flagged today takes a further cut. A missed game costs the gap between the player and a replacement-level one, never more.

What it does not know. Weekly variance, role changes, waiver moves and what the other managers actually do. Treat the category counts as a comparison between strategies, not a forecast.